Track Forecast

The Official Track Forecast Errors and Skill Scores of IMD/ RSMC New Delhi for the tropical cyclones (maximum sustained wind speed 34 kts and above) during 2003 to 2016 are shown in Fig. 1a & b and Table 1&2 respectively.  The figures clearly indicate significant improvement in the cyclone track forecast, as the errors have decreased and the skill has increased.

For details about the verification methods and the results, following research article may be referred:

M. Mohapatra, D.P. Nayak, R.P. Sharma, B.K. Bandyopadhyay, 2013, Evaluation of Official Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast over north Indian Ocean Issued by India Meteorological Department, Journal of Earth System Sciences, 122, pp 589-601.

track 2016

Fig.1: Annual Average Track forecast (a) error (km) and (b) Skill (%) of IMD for TCs over the north Indian Ocean during 2003-16

Table1: Annual Average Track Forecast Error(km) during 2003-16

track error table

Table2: Annual Average Track Forecast Skill (%) during 2003-16

track error table

Track forecast issued upto 72 hours since 2009 and 120 hours since 2013.