Landfall Forecast

The Official Landfall Forecast Errors of IMD/ RSMC New Delhi for the landfalling tropical cyclones (maximum sustained wind speed 34 kts and above) during 2003 to 2016 are shown in Fig. 1a & b and Table 1&2. The figures clearly indicate significant improvement in the cyclone landfall forecast. Five year moving avrage Landfall point (km) and Landfall time (hrs) errors of IMD/RSMC for the cyclones during 2003-2016 and shown in Fig. 2a & 2b.

For details about the verification methods and the results, following research article may be referred:

M. Mohapatra, D.P. Nayak, Monica Sharma, R.P. Sharma, B.K. Bandyopadhyay, 2015, Evaluation of landfall forecast over North Indian Ocean issued by India Meteorological Department, Journal of Earth System Sciences, 124, pp 861-874.

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Fig.1: Annual Average (a) Landfall Point (km) and (b) Landfall Time (hrs) forecast errors for TCs over the north Indian Ocean during 2003-16

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Fig.2: Five year moving avrage (a)Landfall point (km) and (b) Landfall time (hrs) errors of IMD/RSMC for the cyclones during 2003-2016 and shown in Fig. 2a & 2b

Table1: Annual Average Landfall Point Forecast Errors (km) for TCs over the north Indian Ocean during 2003-16

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Table2: Annual Average Landfall Time forecast error (hrs) for TCs over the north Indian Ocean during 2003-16

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Landfall forecast issued upto 72 hours since 2009 and upto 120 hours since 2013.