Intensification

The probabilities of intensification of a depression into a cyclonic storm and severe cyclonic storm and cyclonic storm into a severe cyclonic storm in different months are shown in Fig.1. The probability is maximum in the month of April followed by March, May and November in case of depression to cyclone and in the month of May followed by April and November in case of depressions to severe cyclonic storm.

More than 50% of the cyclonic disturbances (CDs) that form in the months of March, April, May, November and December intensify into storms. A third of the Bay CDs and half the number of the Arabian Sea CDs intensify into cyclones.

Fig.1(a) Monthly Probability of intensification of depression into a cyclone

Fig.1(b) Monthly Probability of intensification of depression into a severe cyclonic storm

Fig.1 (c). Monthly Probability of intensification of cyclonic storm into a severe cyclonic storm