The Official Track Forecast Errors and Skill Scores of IMD/ RSMC New Delhi for the tropical cyclones (maximum sustained wind speed 34 kts and above) during 2003 to 2021 are shown in Fig. 1a & b and Table 1&2 respectively. The figures clearly indicate significant improvement in the cyclone track forecast, as the errors have decreased and the skill has increased. Five year moving average track forecast error and skill scores of IMD/RSMC for the cyclones during 2003-2021 are shown in Fig. 2a & 2b.
For details about the verification methods and the results, following research article may be referred:
M. Mohapatra, D.P. Nayak, R.P. Sharma, B.K. Bandyopadhyay, 2013, Evaluation of Official Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast over north Indian Ocean Issued by India Meteorological Department, Journal of Earth System Sciences, 122, pp 589-601.
Fig.1: Annual Average Track forecast (a) error (km) and (b) Skill (%) of IMD for TCs over the north Indian Ocean during 2003-21
Fig.2: Five year moving average track (a) forecast error and (b) skill scores of IMD/RSMC for the cyclones during 2003-2021
Table1: Annual Average Track Forecast Error(km) during 2003-21
Table2: Annual Average Track Forecast Skill (%) during 2003-21
Track forecast issued upto 72 hours since 2009 and 120 hours since 2013.